President Bob opened the meeting and called on David Burton who led the pledge and invocation. Guests and visiting Rotarians were introduced.

President Bob announced several upcoming events- The Boys & Girls Clubs Steak & Burger Dinner on 3/25- contact Kam Kyzer, BGCA Executive Director; the ASU men's basketball tournament appearance in Springfield, MA; and United Way's upcoming work day- contact Mark Maund. Also the Group Study Exchange Team trip to India is in mid-April and the Rotary District Conference in Jekyll Island is Apr 23-25.

Bob recognized Curt Young who presented our newest member, Scott Kelly. Scott is a managing partner with the Fulcher Hagler law firm.

Bob recognized Kathy Tuckey, President of the August West Rotary Club who presented her husband, Thom as our newest Paul Harris Fellow.

Phil Wahl introduced Paul Lehman, our guest speaker. Paul is the Director of Capital Management for First Citizens Bank. Paul presented us with an Economic and Market Update. Paul focused on several economic indicators, sharing statistics about each. Housing, while showing some recovery earlier, has experienced a recent downward trend which may be a new down market or due to the harsh winter weather. He shared information about the drop in new housing starts and stated that this correction was probably needed due to the oversupply of inventory. He presented data showing that when the housing market drops sharply, it is always followed by a sharp and relatively quick recovery.

He also talked about consumer spending (typically 70% of GDP) as well as sharing data on the money supply (M2.) Consumer demand for loans has dropped since 2003 while banks have gone through a cycle of relaxing and then tightening credit standards.

The stock market rebound (up 60% since early 2009) is not tracking closely with consumer confidence which is up only 26%. He stated that this is typical at the end of recessionary periods. Paul also shared population data comparing the birth index of the "baby boomers" (1945- 1964) with the "echo boomers" (1978-1999.) This significant, younger population segment will provide the fuel that will stimulate spending since the older boomers will not spend at the same rate.

He shared data from the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, the best dataset to predict future trends. We have seen 10-11 month of growth, although most recently the rate of ascent has leveled. Jobless rates are not a leading indicator and so this data will trail by 6-24 months. He stated that "the sustainability of any recovery will always be dependent on the government's economic and monetary policy." He believes that interest rates will remain low and even if the Fed decides to raise rates, it will be modest increases.

From an investment standpoint, he recommends stocks in companies that pay good, consistent dividends. Paul said that this is an indication of a financially sound company. He highlighted seven companies- Diebold, Dow Corp, Genuine Parts, Proctor & Gamble, Emerson Electric, 3M, and Integrys-all of which have consistently paid (and increased) dividends over the last 50 years.

At the conclusion of his presentation, Paul fielded questions from the members.

The meeting was adjourned following the recital of the Four-Way Test.